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De siste årene har legemeldt sykefravær med en psykisk diagnose økt betraktelig. I debatten diskuteres mulige årsaker til økningen og nivået på sykefraværet om hverandre. Samtidig mangler grunnleggende kunnskap om sykefravær med psykiske diagnoser. I denne artikkelen bidrar vi til å øke forståelsen av denne type sykefravær, i lys av utviklingen de siste årene. Med en regresjonsmodell identifiserer vi kjennetegn forbundet med økt risiko for sykefravær med psykiske diagnoser. Vi undersøker deretter om det har vært endringer i risikofaktorene fra 2018 til 2023.
Vi finner at antall sykmeldte med en psykisk diagnose har økt med 28 prosent fra 2018 til 2023. Videre har de lange fraværene blitt enda lenger. I 2018 hadde kvinner, personer mellom 30 og 39 år, de med barn, sivilstandene ugift og skilt/ separert eller enke/enkemenn samt ansatte i høyskoleyrker og omsorgsyrker høyere risiko for å bli sykmeldt med en psykisk diagnose enn sine motparter.
Fra 2018 til 2023 finner vi få, og små, endringer i hvem som har høyere risiko for å bli sykmeldt med en psykisk diagnose. Unges (18-29 år) risiko har imidlertid økt mer enn for personer mellom 40 og 49 år. Dette til tross for at de to aldersgruppenes risiko var like høy i 2018. Utover dette finner vi at sykefravær med psykiske diagnoser har økt på tvers av befolkningen. Det svekker hypoteser om at økningen drives av forhold som har rammet enkelte grupper. Forklaringer som økt bruk av hjemmekontor, endret arbeidspress og insentiver i sykefraværsordningen, får liten støtte. Pandemiens langsiktige konsekvenser, endrede holdninger til sykefravær, og endret psykisk helse, kan være medvirkende faktorer. Disse teoriene styrkes av tall fra Finland, Sverige og Storbritannia, som viser at utviklingen ikke er unik for Norge. Vi argumenterer for at det trengs mer forskning på utviklingen i psykisk helse etter pandemien.
There has been a considerable increase in doctor-certified sickness absence with a mental health diagnosis in Norway in recent years. In the public discourse, possible causes of the increase and the level of sickness absence are often discussed interchangeably. At the same time, there is a fundamental lack of knowledge about sickness absence with a mental health diagnosis. This article contributes to the understanding of this type of sickness absence, in light of the recent increase. We use a regression model to identify characteristics risk factors associated with an increased risk of being on sick leave with a mental health diagnosis. We then examine whether there have been changes in these risk factors between 2018 and 2023. We find that the number of people on sick leave with a mental health diagnosis has increased by 28 percent between 2018 and 2023. Furthermore, long-lasting absences have become even longer. In 2018, women, people aged 30 to 39, those with children, unmarried, divorced, separated and widowed, as well as people in college and care professions have a higher risk of being on sick leave with a mental health diagnosis than their counterparts. There were few and small changes in who faces a higher risk of sickness absence with a mental health diagnosis between 2018 and 2023. However, young people (18-29 years) have an increased risk compared to people aged 40-49, despite having had the same risk in 2018. Beyond this, the risk of being sick listed with a mental health diagnosis has risen throughout the population. This weakens common explanations that argue the increase is driven by factors affecting specific groups of people. Furthermore, explanations such as increased use of remote work, increased workload in certain sectors, and changed incentives in the sick leave system receive little support. The long-term consequences of the pandemic, changing attitudes towards sick leave, and worsening mental health are rather plausible explanations. These explanations are further strengthened by data from Finland, Sweden and the UK, which show that recent developments are not unique to Norway. We argue that more research on developments in the population’s mental health is needed.
There has been a considerable increase in doctor-certified sickness absence with a mental health diagnosis in Norway in recent years. In the public discourse, possible causes of the increase and the level of sickness absence are often discussed interchangeably. At the same time, there is a fundamental lack of knowledge about sickness absence with a mental health diagnosis. This article contributes to the understanding of this type of sickness absence, in light of the recent increase. We use a regression model to identify characteristics risk factors associated with an increased risk of being on sick leave with a mental health diagnosis. We then examine whether there have been changes in these risk factors between 2018 and 2023. We find that the number of people on sick leave with a mental health diagnosis has increased by 28 percent between 2018 and 2023. Furthermore, long-lasting absences have become even longer. In 2018, women, people aged 30 to 39, those with children, unmarried, divorced, separated and widowed, as well as people in college and care professions have a higher risk of being on sick leave with a mental health diagnosis than their counterparts. There were few and small changes in who faces a higher risk of sickness absence with a mental health diagnosis between 2018 and 2023. However, young people (18-29 years) have an increased risk compared to people aged 40-49, despite having had the same risk in 2018. Beyond this, the risk of being sick listed with a mental health diagnosis has risen throughout the population. This weakens common explanations that argue the increase is driven by factors affecting specific groups of people. Furthermore, explanations such as increased use of remote work, increased workload in certain sectors, and changed incentives in the sick leave system receive little support. The long-term consequences of the pandemic, changing attitudes towards sick leave, and worsening mental health are rather plausible explanations. These explanations are further strengthened by data from Finland, Sweden and the UK, which show that recent developments are not unique to Norway. We argue that more research on developments in the population’s mental health is needed.